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India’s GDP growth has come in at 8.2 per cent for the quarter covering April, May, June of 2018. The growth number is by any standards robust. Dr. Bibek Debroy, Chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to Prime Minister has said that it reflects “superior acceleration in India’s growth trajectory”. The data comes just as the nation’s Central bank has recorded that 99.31 per cent of all the notes demonetised on Nov. 8, 2016 came back. The total value of the old currency notes of Rs.500 and Rs.1,000 was Rs.15,417.93 billion, of which Rs.15,310.73 billion was returned to the banks for new notes. This means that demonetisation was (in effect) an abject failure, because the hordes of black money supposedly stashed away that would be wiped out remained just the fanciful story that it was. Now we can expect to hear more on how the economic path is well laid out and the woes of the last two years are behind us. This is quite fine but the economic analysis misses the obvious point that economic growth is never in a vacuum. Analysing the internal drivers and levers of growth, as economists do so well, is one part of the story. To understand the larger picture, and to check if growth is sustainable and lasting, the bigger picture also matters, and may matter much more. So the economic story cannot be divorced from the socio-political story.
From that lens, we cannot miss that this is a particularly difficult time for our country. There are deep strains in the polity. The nation-wide raids and arrests of well-known activists in a case that on the face of it is dubious has further raised the political temperature. That the Supreme Court had to intervene to remind the authorities of democracy being a safety valve is in itself testimony to the air of authoritarianism with which the government is moving against those it sees as against it and the general decline in standards of democratic debate.
From that lens, we cannot miss that this is a particularly difficult time for our country. There are deep strains in the polity. The nation-wide raids and arrests of well-known activists in a case that on the face of it is dubious has further raised the political temperature. That the Supreme Court had to intervene to remind the authorities of democracy being a safety valve is in itself testimony to the air of authoritarianism with which the government is moving against those it sees as against it and the general decline in standards of democratic debate. Further, the case stems from the celebrations and the subsequent violence that was unleashed during the Jan. 1 events to mark the 200th anniversary of the war in the village of Bhima Koregaon in Maharashtra’s Pune district. This is the place where the Mahars fought on the British side against the Brahminical Peshwas, winning the battle and giving the battleground its unique significance in Indian history. New tensions in the area are only a reflection of the rising unease among Dalits, coming amid the politics of assertive and aggressive Hindutva. The tempo has been built over the years. The ban on cow slaughter, the incidents in Una, the lynchings across the nation and the retaliatory framing of Hindutva forces as the new Peshwai by resurgent Dalit groups, with the right-wing hitting back to break this narrative – all of it brings together a volatile mix of social and political forces that will come to a head as the election date comes closer.
Arrests stemming from the conversations and events that carry deep political aspirations and implications and a police case that carries little conviction can become a lightning rod for further protests and realignment at the grassroots. In fact, it does the government little service to be prosecuting such a case but the fact that this has happened tells us that space for debate is being reduced. It tells us of an undercurrent of new tensions and caste conflicts and no one yet knows where this will lead. Let us not forget that the protests at Bhima Koregaon were sought to be banned and were described as “unconstitutional and anti-national” by an assortment of local Hindutva and Brahmanical organisations, which in itself was an amazing demand. Into this potent mix come the accounts of how the Sanatan Sanstha has been growing and the alleged links that six people arrested in connection with the murder of rationalist leader Narendra Dhabolkar have with the Sanstha. Dhabolkar was murdered in 2013. It is clear that the forces of hatred and violence have been in the works over some time now.
The author Fritjof Capra put it very well when he wrote that diversity is a strategic advantage only if there is a truly vibrant community, sustained by a web of relationships. If the community is fragmented into insolated groups and individuals, diversity can easily become a source of prejudice and friction. In ecosystems as in human communities, this is how diversity plays out. If India stands as a house divided, it means a variety of political pressures that will take their toll and are unlikely to allow the pursuing of policies that can ensure steady economic growth.
This is a nation divided and in parts torn asunder by complex conflicting pressures generated by a government that had the unique opportunity to bring together people on the one agenda that it could have brought unity of purpose – good governance and the fight against corruption, which in itself would have proved to be growth-oriented activity. Instead, the unleashing of insidious forces, not all of which are understood as they play out in the system, has brought us rising anger, a growing restiveness and a new set of bottled pressures that could explode. Combined with prospects of a heated battle for 2019, this is a tinderbox – hardly the conditions conducive to orderly, planned and steady growth.
The author Fritjof Capra put it very well when he wrote that diversity is a strategic advantage only if there is a truly vibrant community, sustained by a web of relationships. If the community is fragmented into insolated groups and individuals, diversity can easily become a source of prejudice and friction. In ecosystems as in human communities, this is how diversity plays out. If India stands as a house divided, it means a variety of political pressures that will take their toll and are unlikely to allow the pursuing of policies that can ensure steady economic growth.
The DNA of independent India is that of a democracy. We fight elections at every forum. On an average, there is an election and more going on somewhere every day – from the big ones to our legislatures and panchayats to smaller ones in clubs, unions and housing societies.
The DNA of independent India is that of a democracy. We fight elections at every forum. On an average, there is an election and more going on somewhere every day – from the big ones to our legislatures and panchayats to smaller ones in clubs, unions and housing societies. Many of these are important make or break fights. We have had this democratic tradition with us for long. The suppression of democratic values leaves the nation uncomfortable and in fact unmanageable and ungovernable. The lessons of the Emergency are not too far in the past and must never be forgotten. A natural corollary is that while the significance and critical role of growth is understood and seen as desirable, even aspirational, a rising GDP number cannot be the unidirectional goal to the exclusion of all else. We need balanced growth that takes along the aspirations of all sections, which means socio-politico-economic balance for all people. True, our malls are ticking, cars are selling and consumption is growing but beneath the surface a lot else is boiling.
The remarks of Finance Minister Arun Jaitley and the BJP President Amit Shah on growth need to be seen in this context. The Finance Minister said India is witnessing an expansion of the neo middle class. The BJP President told us that India’s rising economic fortunes mean better prospects for the common man, who will now have more means and opportunities to realise his or her dreams. All of this is important because it tells us that growth after all is for the people. But if it keeps large portions of the population out of the political discourse, suppressed and hemmed in, then such a skewed growth can unleash its own set of tensions and pressures and upset the apple cart. In the end, the people of India are not merely consumers. They are citizens who have a stake not only in growth but in freedom, justice and opportunity for all.