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By Malay Misra
With the immediate neighbourhood in dire distress, Bangladesh PM Hasina’s flight out of her country to India, and New Delhi being viewed as partisan to her regime, the Indian leadership has now set its sights on Eastern Europe. PM Modi’s visits to Poland (Aug 21-22) and Ukraine (Aug 23) (coinciding with Ukraine’s National Day), planned soon after his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in July, seems to be India’s direct attempt at mediation in the 30-month conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
India has desisted from naming Russia as the aggressor and has abstained from a slew of resolutions against Russia in the UN
India has taken a consistent stand in calling for “dialogue and diplomacy” as the only path to peace, and for a negotiated bilateral settlement keeping the interests of both parties in view, in its meetings with both Presidents Zelenskyy and Putin on several occasions, the last being on the sidelines of the G7 meeting in Italy in June and the bilateral summit in Moscow in July this year respectively.
Visuals of PM Modi embracing President Putin during his summit meeting, soon after Russian missiles had pounded a children’s hospital killing scores of cancer-ridden children, had outraged the Ukraine President, and displeased the western countries, who had assembled in Washington DC at the same time for NATO’s 75th anniversary.
The surprise invasion and takeover of the southern Kursk region of Russia by Ukraine, the first ever attack on Russian territory since the end of the Second World War, has upended all efforts at mediation between the two warring parties
Against that background and in continuation of its balancing act between both big power alliances, India’s efforts may have been thought to assuage concerns on the Ukrainian side and make the West feel comfortable with the stated Indian position in the conflict. A position which has not left the West happy as India has desisted from naming Russia as the aggressor and has abstained from a slew of resolutions against Russia in the UN.
Furthermore, India was represented at a junior level at the peace conference organised by Ukraine in Switzerland on June 24 soon after the G-7 meeting and did not sign the joint declaration of the meeting attended by over 80 nations. This has not been seen well in terms of India’s standing as an impartial peacemaker in the conflict.
Putin’s stand cannot be expected to allow any softening of Russia’s position particularly with Sweden and Finland having joined NATO
Meanwhile, the surprise invasion and takeover of the southern Kursk region of Russia by Ukraine, the first ever attack on Russian territory since the end of the Second World War, has upended all efforts at mediation between the two warring parties, hardening Moscow in not letting the Qatari mediation efforts gain any further ground, though a virtual meeting between both sides had been planned for Aug 22.
Strategically, Ukraine’s attack on Aug 6 in going deep into Russian territory, taking control of the town of Sudzha and over 80 settlements in its 400 sq mile push, has been basically to secure an advantage in its negotiating position with Russia though Putin has been steadfast in not ceding ground in its occupied Donetsk region of north-eastern Ukraine, captured within months of its Feb 22 invasion, holding referendums and annexing these territories to Russia with nearly 40,000 sq miles of Ukrainian territory (20% of Ukraine) under Russian occupation.
The war fueled on both sides with external support has shown no signs of respite. To add to it, there is the recent report pointing out that a Ukrainian team sabotaged the Nord Stream gas pipeline no 1
After having destroyed three important bridges over the river Seym, reportedly using US-made Himars rocket systems causing severe damage to Russian infrastructure and civilian casualties, Ukraine has been able to cut off the Russian mainland from the occupied territory while holding 2000 Russian POWs as bargaining chips. Both sides have dug into intractable positions, Ukraine demanding complete Russian withdrawal from all occupied territories including Crimea (annexed in 2014) while Russia refuses to part with its occupied territories and wants Ukraine’s categorical assurance about not joining NATO.
Putin’s stand cannot be expected to allow any softening of Russia’s position particularly with Sweden and Finland having joined NATO. The secret mediation talks convened in Istanbul in the early phase of the fighting had broken down with delegations from both sides not having met for months. The war meanwhile has continued unabated while President Zelenskyy in his frequent travels to European capitals and USA (with an address to the joint session of the Congress in Washington DC) has lobbied for support for his 10-point peace plan and steady supply of arms to continue with the fight which the Biden administration has fully supported.
Modi’s peace-making efforts may not be able to produce any tangible results
Russia has been involved in attacking Ukraine’s power grid to disable the country’s power stations (Ukraine has lost about 9 gigawatts of power out of 18 gigawatts required for peak consumption in winter) while imposing a naval blockade on Ukraine’s grain exports through the Black Sea (the grain deal brokered by Turkey and the UN in 2022 barely lasted a few months).
As for Ukraine, it has struck Russia’s oil facilities with long-range drone attacks, burning down refineries, depots and reservoirs, reducing Moscow’s oil refining by nearly 15%. The war fueled on both sides with external support has shown no signs of respite. To add to it, there is the recent Wall Street Journal report pointing out that a Ukrainian team sabotaged the Nord Stream gas pipeline no 1, carrying gas from Russia to Germany under the North Sea, using Poland as a logistical base. The disclosure that the 6-member Ukrainian diving team carried out the operation in a small yacht in Sept 2022, has resulted in a dispute between NATO allies Poland and Germany.
With an Indian community of 25,000 including 5,000 students, Poland could be an important bridge for India with Central and Eastern Europe and PM Modi’s visit is expected to further boost bilateral cooperation between the two countries
Under these circumstances and with the war at an advanced stage, Modi’s peace-making efforts may not be able to produce any tangible results except that his visit comes after 35 years of an Indian PM’s visit to Ukraine and at President Zelenskyy’s invitation, as mentioned in an official briefing by the Indian Foreign Ministry. To Poland too, Modi has visited after 45 years of an Indian PM’s visit, at the invitation of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, to commemorate the 70th anniversary of Indo-Polish relations. The visit included discussions on issues of geopolitics, defence cooperation, energy security and trade and investments.
Poland being a border State has extended humanitarian assistance to Ukraine in hosting Ukrainian nationals fleeing the war (the Indian PM’s visit was by train between Poland and Ukraine since overflight facilities are banned due to the war).
It may be added that Poland was instrumental in the evacuation of nearly 4000 Indian students at the onset of the Russian invasion in 2022. With bilateral trade of $ 6 billion, Poland is the largest partner of India in Eastern Europe. Besides, there have been several Indian investments in the areas of IT, pharmaceuticals, steel, chemicals and automobiles while a few Polish firms have also invested in India. With an Indian community of 25,000 including 5,000 students, Poland could be an important bridge for India with Central and Eastern Europe and PM Modi’s visit is expected to further boost bilateral cooperation between the two countries.
Ukraine however holds centerstage in the visit. The dispute with Russia has turned into a battle of nerves with billions of dollars from US and NATO members already sunk and war machines on both sides poised for a new upscaled global conflict which would require an enormous, wider endeavour to solve. Thus, the mediation efforts may not help much except in reducing Western displeasure and discomfort with India’s stated position so far in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
(Dr. Malay Mishra is a retired diplomat and political analyst. Views are personal).