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There is an old saying in Sanskrit. यथा राजा तथा प्रजा - as the King so are the people. In a democracy, the reverse is also true. As the people, so is the king. So, the people have got the King they deserve again in 2019. Indian democracy is comparatively young. Hence, the commoners still believe that the country should be ruled by an able raja or rani. Indira Gandhi in a sense was the rani ma, then the prince came along, followed by the widow of the prince. People eventually got tired of the corruption and nepotism of the ruling family, along with the rising perception that the Congress and other secular parties were engaged in the appeasement of minorities for what has come to be called vote-bank politics.
Most people seemed happy that they were ruled by a Hindu raja. Indeed, his government has been successful in delivering cooking gas connections and cylinders to poor families in rural and urban India, poor people have received money to build their houses. He had the political will to implement GST.
To an extent this is also the reality. In the so-called progressive era, to declare oneself in public to be a Sanatani Hindu was considered reactionary. The RSS-BJP combine was effective in playing on this perception in peoples' minds. They had already successfully experimented with this idea in Gujarat. Narendra Modi, who became the Chief Minister of Gujarat in 2001, assumed the role of a king of a province. Only the Chief Minister’s office mattered. In 2014, the aspirant provincial King was able to convey to people at large in the country that he would get the country rid of corruption and bring salamati and samruddhi – security and prosperity. People were convinced and replaced the ruling King or his clan with another King-like person who had already established his fiefdom in Gujarat.
That model travelled with him to New Delhi. He ruled for five years with his PMO. Other ministers and their offices hardly mattered. Most people seemed happy that they were ruled by a Hindu raja. Indeed, his government has been successful in delivering cooking gas connections and cylinders to poor families in rural and urban India, poor people have received money to build their houses. He had the political will to implement GST. But the country also witnessed the Hindutva elements playing out in the open and crushing the Dalits and minorities with impunity. To all this, he has turned a Nelson’s Eye. The King could do no wrong. If somebody dared say that this was an Emperor without clothes, he would be terrorised and dubbed anti-national.
Interestingly, while he was in power, Modi kept harping on the work he was doing for the economic betterment of the people in general and the poor in particular. Unfortunately, the economy was not doing so well. His credibility was going down. So, when the campaign took off, he switched from the work he had done or not done to invoking nationalism and issues of external and internal security. And Pulwama happened and was followed by Balakot.
Not only the opposition but equally at stake is the credibility of secular intelligentsia that aims to democratise thinking in the public spaces towards developing culture-based governance models organic to a pluralistic country like India. It now has a task on its hand. It has to come out of its Ivory Tower and work at the grassroots. At one time, the followers of Gandhi and Sarvodaya workers worked in such a manner and oriented the youth. Such forces have almost vanished.
He effectively conveyed that he was the person in whose hands India was not only safe, but also ready to retaliate against its enemies. He cleverly confused people between nationalism and secularism. He was also successful in making people believe that those who invoked secularism could be anti-national. It was all along a hard Hindutva line. The results are a reflection of this – as many as 17 states have given the BJP a lead. The most worrying trend is that West Bengal has turned saffron. Hindutva forces have been successful in tearing through the grassroots cadres of the CPI(M) and Trinamool Congress.
Not only the opposition but equally at stake is the credibility of secular intelligentsia that aims to democratise thinking in the public spaces towards developing culture-based governance models organic to a pluralistic country like India. It now has a task on its hand. It has to come out of its Ivory Tower and work at the grassroots. At one time, the followers of Gandhi and Sarvodaya workers worked in such a manner and oriented the youth. Such forces have almost vanished. Interestingly, Modi invokes Gandhiji time and again for his convenience and then enables a Pragya Thakur enter Parliament.
While accepting power Modi has been very humble. He showed this in his victory speech in 2014 and in his speech at the party headquarters on the night of 23 May 2019 again. The fakir of the country, who at other times wore designer clothes, humbly thanked Indians for filling his jholi. He has taken a vow in public that he would follow the constitution in letter and spirit. He has also conveyed that his governance will be not only by bahumati - majority, but also with sarvasammati – consensus. It remains to be seen how the government works. Modi has also publicly announced that he would not take any step with ill-intention, he will not do anything for his own self, and remain dedicated to the nation’s work.
The economy has to be turned around, jobs have to be created and incomes of the poor have to increase to keep Indian democracy on course. These promises will be difficult to keep and the worry is that if he is unable to meet this complex set of pressures, it is likely that Modi may become increasing authoritarian and the fakir may turn into a Zalim Hukumran – a ruthless ruler.
Let us not forget that BJP’s raashtravad – nationalism – is Hindu nationalism. From 2014, the non-political allies of the BJP have felt licentious and they are engaged in aggressive and violent offensive against the minorities and dalits. Modi must be fully aware of the consequences of falling back upon these forces to win the 2019 elections. A significant number of voters have voted for the BJP because they wanted to vote for the Prime Minister and not necessarily the BJP candidate. But the Hindutva forces will read BJP’s clear majority in the House as full approval and license to advance toward an even more aggressive Hindutva agenda. Hindutva forces have further consolidated their power. Modi, who has reiterated sabka saath sabka vikas, may find it extremely difficult to keep his ‘people’ within his inclusive mind-set. The communal mind-sets will further harden and it remains to be seen what Modi can or will do.
The next most important agenda is creating employment in the country. Make in India, Stand up India and the national skill development mission etc. have met with very limited success. The shine of the victory will wear out very soon if Modi does not deliver. If employment opportunities do not materialise soon, and if the food prices rise without control, restlessness will grow among the youth. Farmers’ problems are real and are hanging above him like the sword of Damocles. The environment to express dissent is not as conducive as it was during the pre-emergency time, yet one can portend large scale disquiet and disturbances in the country a couple of years before the completion of the term of the present Lok Sabha. The economy has to be turned around, jobs have to be created and incomes of the poor have to increase to keep Indian democracy on course. These promises will be difficult to keep and the worry is that if he is unable to meet this complex set of pressures, it is likely that Modi may become increasing authoritarian and the fakir may turn into a Zalim Hukumran – a ruthless ruler. That would be a very unhappy outcome and protends trouble in the long term.
(Dr. Sudarshan Iyengar is a noted Gandhian economist and the former Vice Chancellor of Gujarat Vidyapith, Ahmedabad, a University founded by Mahatma Gandhi in 1920)