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By Malay Mishra
The comprehensive caste survey (CCS) released by the Bihar government on Gandhi Jayanti has caused a flutter, reviving memories of the early 1990s which were characterised by the release of the Mandal Commission report and the Advani-led Rath Yatra to build the Ram Temple in Ayodhya (culminating in the destruction of the Babri Masjid in December 1992). The first got linked to the epithet Mandal Kamandal which was used to describe the VP Singh government’s efforts to implement the Mandal Commision report to give caste-based reservation to OBCs as against the BJP’s emerging Hindutva phalanx to capture the popular imagination and vote.
The CCS is a prelude to a clamour from opposition parties and even smaller caste-based groups in the ruling NDA coalition (like the Anupriya Patel-led Apna Dal) for a nation-wide caste census. It may be noted that the last caste census was conducted in 1931 and it would be the first time since India’s independence that a caste-based census would happen, which is a promise by the Congress if it came to power as part of the INDIA alliance at the Centre. It is also noteworthy that the last decadal census was conducted in 2011 and the next census due in 2021 has been held in abeyance due to Covid 19 and subsequent apathy on the part of the Modi government in going for a census
The last caste census was conducted in 1931 and it would be the first time since India’s independence that a caste-based census would happen, which is a promise by the Congress if it came to power as part of the INDIA alliance at the Centre
The BJP, since coming to power in 2014, has systematically increased its profile, membership and voting share by being able to consolidate the Hindu base and bring all caste groups of the Hindu hierarchy under one broad tent. A large chunk of the BJP vote share comes from projecting itself as a Hindu party, protecting the interests of the Hindus. In this perspective, the party has supported a broad coalition of interests of the upper castes, Brahmins, Banias, Kayasths as well as a broad chunk of the OBCs and other extremely backward castes in an amorphous grouping where the lower castes have subjugated their interests to become part of a rainbow coalition for power-sharing. This strategy has been giving the party rich dividends in the successive general elections of 2014 and 2019. With the next general elections coming up a few months after elections in five states (including three in the Hindi-Hindu belt), the Bihar caste survey has shown the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) occupying 63% of the State’s population with the SCs accounting for 19.65%. Thus, adding the SC and ST groups, as also belonging to the broad spectrum of Hinduism, the total percentage of the lower caste groups moves up to over 83% of the population while relegating the upper castes to just about 15.5 %. That includes 5% upper caste Muslims out of a total Muslim population of over 17.7%.
With caste configurations clearly demarcated, this will throw up a number of regional and sub-regional leaders and lead to coalitions at the base and intermediary levels
This has not only upset the BJP’s electoral calculations but also aimed at redrawing the caste configuration for the purpose of higher reservations, proportionate to their population share, in educational institutions and employment. Thus, Rahul Gandhi’s slogan, Jitni aabadi utna haq has found an echo among the opposition groups which have added their voice to the increasing demand on the BJP for a nation-wide caste census.
The Supreme Court has ruled against a stay on the CCS, supporting the Patna High Court’s order of Aug 1, which had allowed the State government to go ahead with its caste census despite the Centre’s objections that only the Centre as per the 7th Schedule of the Constitution, the Census Act, 1948 and Census Rules,1990 was empowered to conduct a census, and that privacy of respondents could be breached in such surveys. While calling the exercise a ‘social survey’, the Bihar government has committed to bring out the socio-economic dimensions of the survey in a month and half, in time for the next sitting of the State legislature, so that targets can be fixed for allocating governance benefits and marking reservations for the hitherto uncounted groups.
The BJP leadership has been confounded with this masterstroke of Bihar politics
It may be noted that a day after the survey was released, the Nitish Kumar government allocated a 10% quota for the economically weaker sections in the State judicial services and State-run law colleges and universities, thus stealing a march over the BJP which had introduced such a category to assuage the upper castes fixing an income criterion with an annual ceiling of Rs 8 lakhs. States such as Karnataka, Odisha, MP, Maharashtra and Haryana have already completed their OBC surveys while Rajasthan has committed to bring it out after the State elections.
Once the socio-economic status data of the State caste surveys are out, the States can identify the most vulnerable groups and plan policy measures and empowerment schemes accordingly. This will lead to greater empowerment of the lowest rungs of society and the emergence of new caste leaders where new groups could vie for a greater share in the social pie. With caste configurations clearly demarcated, this will throw up a number of regional and sub-regional leaders and lead to coalitions at the base and intermediary levels.
The BJP’s ideologically-imposed harmony and equality for the subaltern classes is very likely to give way to a constitutionally-sanctioned equality buttressed by judicial scrutiny at the highest levels
This is a situation rife for a Mandal 2.0 with the demand for greater bargaining power among the lower castes of society will pre-empt the BJP’s move to gain dividends from the opening of the Ram temple in Ayodhya scheduled for early next year and cut into the ruling party’s vote bank in the Hindi-Hindu belt substantially. In this sense, Nitish Kumar, along with the RJD, has played an astute move to spoil the BJP’s plans to secure a march over the opposition in the general elections of 2024 while aspiring for a major role within the opposition alliance. No wonder the BJP leadership has been confounded with this masterstroke of Bihar politics.
The OBCs should be vigilant about not losing their demand for greater attention of the State for their security, prosperity and justice
Meanwhile PM Modi has made disjointed statements accusing the opposition of playing the caste card while mentioning that poverty is the biggest caste, meaning that the State governments should be more mindful of addressing poverty instead of dividing society in the name of caste, this seems like a knee-jerk reaction. The ruling party may not be able to contain the rising tide of OBC and lower caste demands through their local and regional interlocutors. In that sense, the BJP’s ideologically-imposed harmony and equality for the subaltern classes is very likely to give way to a constitutionally-sanctioned equality buttressed by judicial scrutiny at the highest levels.
Dr. Ambedkar in his iconic tract, The Annihilation of Caste, had called for a total de-identification of the Dalits with Hinduism in order to evolve a new language of protest, and a new voice and identity for real empowerment. That, alas, is not going to happen. Rather the obverse will come true, of further fragmentation of the OBC groups in a bid to regain their identity within the structure of recognised religion. However, in this quest for a new identity and aspiration to be equal stakeholders in societal development, the OBCs should be vigilant about not losing their demand for greater attention of the State for their security, prosperity and justice.
(Dr. Malay Mishra is a retired diplomat and political analyst. Views expressed are personal)