By Wajahat Habibullah
At the close of polling on the evening of June 1, the last day of the scattered seven-phase elections to the Lok Sabha, the visual and print media was awash with purported exit polls claiming a landslide victory for the BJP on its own strength, and with at least 350 seats together with its allies from the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Not everyone agreed, but a prejudiced section of the media ridiculed those who raised doubts. These one-sided media moguls mocked the rival I.N.D.I.A alliance and poked fun at those who pointed out that the election was turning and that the ruling alliance faced reversals. Political strategist Prashant Kishor, having bristled in an interview that had questioned his self-proclaimed infallibility, in which he had predicted 300 plus seats for the BJP, dismissed the lot raising doubts on the NDA performance as “fake”. The evident doctoring of exit polls was in fact the consummation of a campaign that began with a senior news anchor of a leading media house publishing on his Facebook page “Ab ki baar 400 se par” (This time, over 400) The results, however, reveal, who the fakes really are.
Now, as we know, the BJP in 2024 has suffered its worst defeat since the assumption of Narendra Modi’s leadership, and ended the tally well below an absolute majority, leaving the party dependent primarily on two allies, which its own leadership has, in the past repeatedly labelled shifty and unreliable, and one of whom had faced jail under BJP rule. On the other hand, these very results have been celebrated by ‘liberals’ who have read into them a reversal of the drift towards majoritarianism and the rescue of constitutional governance that became an issue this time, given that some BJP candidates themselves had allegedly proclaimed that the Constitution would be revised. The fear of a constitutional change sunk in, never mind the BJP denials, eroding the BJP’s support base among the backward communities.
The evident doctoring of exit polls was in fact the consummation of a campaign that began with a senior news anchor of a leading media house publishing on his Facebook page “Ab ki baar 400 se par” (This time, over 400) The results, however, reveal, who the fakes really are.
This saw the drawing of battle lines never perhaps intended but brought on by the irresponsible utterings of leaders from the BJP including Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself regarding the legal basis of citizenship of millions of his fellow citizens based only on their religious denomination. This certainly rallied the Muslim community across India behind the I.N.D.I.A alliance. In the Union Territories of Ladakh and J&K, with their Muslim majorities, these battle lines are dramatically demonstrable, but are obvious to a discreet observer elsewhere in the country. In a triumph of the democratic option, Kashmiris notorious for their election boycotts in the past streamed out in large numbers to rally behind the local nationalist National Conference and even one proponent of independence (azadi), Engineer Rasheed languishing in jail under the UAPA, their sole purpose being to oust the BJP at the Centre.
The last ten years of BJP rule in the country has exacerbated social tensions. All sections of Indian society need reassurance not for the enjoyment of special privileges, except that which is provided in the Constitution, but in each citizen being assured of freedom from economic, social or political discrimination on whatever ground. Otherwise, Indian society is faced with fracture which cannot bode well for the lasting unity that the country was born to. This is a challenge for the incoming government. At least two major components of this government, the JD(U) and the TDP, have already declared their commitment to address this. Will the NDA find answers or buckle under the issue given that contradictory emotions run high on the matter?
In the 1989 elections, as the leader of a party that emerged as the single largest in the polls, Rajiv Gandhi refused to form a government and instead offered "constructive cooperation" to any new government that would take office: "With all my strength, I shall continue to serve the people of India ... elections are about winning and losing, but the nation's work never stops," he had said on national television. Times have now clearly changed.
The results are nevertheless in keeping with the pluralist character of a diverse polity. This is exemplified by the results in UP. Although no politician myself, I had personally campaigned for the son of a former colleague in my home village of Saidanpur in Barabanki district, with a Muslim majority in a reserved constituency. This has been a Samajwadi Party stronghold with the Lok Sabha seat held by the BJP since 2014, but assigned in the I.N.D.I.A alliance to the Congress. The young Congressman Tanuj Punia contesting here won the seat by over two lakh votes, exceeding even the victory margin Rajnath Singh, the BJP strongman fighting from the BJP citadel and former PM Vajpayee’s adjoining constituency of Lucknow. I.N.D.I.A ended up with 47 seats to NDA’s 33, although all predictions, even those supportive of the Opposition, had not given so bold a view as to give the opposition anything above 40.
In “Electoral Democracy: An enquiry into the Fairness and Integrity of Elections in India”, a retired group of civil servants had researched with the assistance of experts the possibility of the electoral process in India being compromised. The nature of elections in Delhi, Odisha and MP, and even in some parts of UP, make these elections worthy of review.
Set against this, however, we have the sweeping NDA victory in the small but seemingly impregnable bastion of the BJD led by India’s longest serving Chief Minister, who could hold onto not a single Lok Sabha seat, with 20 going to the BJP and the only remaining one to the Congress. Not only this, in the Vidhan Sabha dominated for years by the BJD, the BJP wrested an absolute majority with 78 seats against the BJD’s 51, with INC, the former ruling party in the State and more recently the principal opposition taking only 14. Similarly, the BJP took every seat in Madhya Pradesh’s 29 Lok Sabha constituencies with the Congress losing the lone seat Chindwara that it had held consistently under former Chief Minister Kamal Nath, contested this time by his son Nakul where, in the recent State elections held there, a victory for the INC had been predicted but never won.
The last ten years of BJP rule in the country has exacerbated social tensions. All sections of Indian society need reassurance not for the enjoyment of special privileges, except that which is provided in the Constitution, but in each citizen being assured of freedom from economic, social or political discrimination on whatever ground. Otherwise, Indian society is faced with fracture which cannot bode well for the lasting unity that the country was born to.
In “Electoral Democracy: An enquiry into the Fairness and Integrity of Elections in India”, a retired group of civil servants had researched with the assistance of experts the possibility of the electoral process in India being compromised. The nature of elections in Delhi, Odisha and MP, and even in some parts of UP, make these elections worthy of review.
The results are in keeping with the pluralist character of a diverse polity. This is exemplified by the results in UP ... I had personally campaigned for the son of a former colleague in my home village of Saidanpur in Barabanki district, with a Muslim majority in a reserved constituency ... The young Congressman Tanuj Punia contesting here won the seat by over two lakh votes, exceeding even the victory margin Rajnath Singh in the nearby seat of Lucknow.
In the Lok Sabha elections in 1989, the then ruling Indian National Congress, taking account of its severe losses, having been reduced to 197 seats with almost 40% of the vote when a majority required 265, as against the principal opposition Janata Dal’s 143, looked upon this as a defeat, which it was, as indeed it is for the ruling party today. The outgoing PM Rajiv Gandhi, refused to make a bid for office or to cobble together an alliance. Instead, Rajiv Gandhi addressed the nation on national television shortly after the election, promising "constructive cooperation" to the new government, "With all my strength, I shall continue to serve the people of India," he had said. "Elections are about winning and losing, but the nation's work never stops."
We can see that times have changed.
(The writer was the first Chief Information Commissioner of India)